Roman Ponomarenko: “The Ukrainian artificial bubble called ‘not my war’ is really impressive”
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Roman Ponomarenko: “The Ukrainian artificial bubble called ‘not my war’ is really impressive”

Roman Ponomarenko, UICSI expert, military historian and analyst, public and political activist, and officer of the Azov Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine.
I am sure that when our war is studied by military historians of the future, they will be impressed by how the Ukrainian authorities managed to isolate the front from the rear during the full-scale invasion.
Especially in large cities.
To create a bubble for everyone, where they can easily hide from the war and live a normal life.
With some restrictions, of course, such as a ban on men traveling abroad.
At the same time, they are not interested in the war at all and do not pay attention to what is happening at the front and how the situation is changing.
As a result, instead of talking enthusiastically about the heroes of the war, Ukrainian youth do not even know what Azovstal is or how the battle for Mariupol ended.
There are more and more corruption scandals, as well as tenders such as “restoration of the roof and golden domes of St. Sophia Cathedral” for 80 million hryvnias.
This is at a time when the army needs absolutely everything, and there is not a single fully equipped and “packed” brigade.
There are also more and more ridiculous claims against the military by civilians – they said something wrong, some brigade professes the wrong values, etc.
Another consequence is that the replenishment mobilized by the CCC is unmotivated and unwilling to fight.
And they can be understood.
In the Second World War, in all the warring countries, service in the army was an honorable mission.
Paradoxically, this honor has been avoided in today’s Ukraine.
Ukraine’s artificial bubble, codenamed “not my war,” is really impressive.
But it is only a matter of time before it bursts.

Problems and challenges of the modern Ukrainian army
One of the main problems of protracted wars like ours is the inevitable deterioration of the quality of infantry.
This happens for the following reasons:
1. The number of career soldiers who served before the war began has sharply decreased due to combat losses.
The same applies to the most motivated reservists who joined the army with the start of the full-scale invasion.
2. Those of these two categories who have survived without serious injuries are mostly extremely tired and demotivated.
I know a few who initially joined the army with burning eyes, and in 1.5 years have gone through everything that can be done.
And now they are either looking for or have already found a legal reason to leave the service.
And they are doing so.
I completely understand them.
But who will replace them?
3. 3. The newly mobilized are overwhelmingly unmotivated.
They don’t understand why they are being driven to war when the telethon was constantly talking about victories and successes.
4. The training of personnel in general remains inadequate for modern infantry combat.
I recently spoke with mobilized soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine who, before being sent to the front, had only a month of training, where they were taught how to disassemble and reassemble AKs.
There are also contradictory reviews of the quality of training of Ukrainian infantry at foreign training grounds.
Of course, there are exceptions when some units (Azov, the 3rd Brigade, and others) train their own recruits.
However, this is not a trend in the Armed Forces, but rather an exception.

5. Not all units have a good microclimate that facilitates the quick adaptation of newcomers and the development of combat camaraderie.
The same applies to the combat coordination of units within individual formations.
There are also a lot of Soviet rudiments in the Armed Forces, which does not contribute to high motivation, quality training, and morale.
There are several other reasons, but I will keep silent about them here.
The only comfort in this situation is that the enemy’s infantry quality is even worse than ours in all respects and categories.
Therefore, with all other things being equal, a Ukrainian soldier usually wins in an infantry battle.
However, to win this war, it will not be a comparison of the qualities of the infantrymen of both sides that will be decisive, but logistical, economic and geopolitical factors.

Why do soldiers run away from the battlefield? There are a number of reasons for this:
1. Forced mobilization-busification, and as a result, demotivation of the recruit.
2. Poor basic training in training centers.
It is mostly conducted by incompetent instructors, mostly done for show, and the final quality is mostly very low.
The atmosphere in such centers is often depressing.
3. Getting into the unit.
It is a matter of luck.
If the mobilized get to a unit with adequate combat commanders who care about their subordinates and maintain discipline, they will succeed.
I know more than one such example.
However, often a unit turns out to be lax and its command incompetent.
This is a natural situation for any war, when the army is expanding many times over, and staff positions need to be filled by someone, so they look not at competence or real merit, but at the stars on the shoulder straps or personal connections.
Therefore, there are no fraternal relations in the unit, and moral and psychological support exists only on paper.
Consequences: negative microclimate, treacherous rumors, informal destructive leaders, alcohol and substance abuse.
4. Lack of time for normal training and coordination in the unit.
Under current conditions, it takes at least eight months to fully form an infantry battalion, provided it is fully equipped and supplied.
Unfortunately, this time is usually not available.
From these four points, it follows that mobilized soldiers are usually neither morally nor psychologically prepared to participate in intense combat operations.
However, they often end up at the front anyway.
5. Prolonged stay at the front inevitably affects the moral and psychological state of any soldier, even a motivated one.
Emotional exhaustion happens to everyone, and adequate commanders constantly take this into account.
Inadequate ones ignore it.
6. Incompetent command that does not respond to changes in the combat situation and ignores the needs of soldiers.
The result is unnecessary losses in men, weapons and territory.
7. When troops retreat, it inevitably has a negative impact on their morale.
If the unit is disciplined, well-coordinated and has a sense of camaraderie, the soldiers will perform combat missions despite the general negative mood.
However, when this is not the case, the consequences are demoralization, panic rumors (“everything is lost!”), passivity, mass refusal to follow orders, abandonment of positions and desertion (according to official figures, we have 63,200 deserters as of mid-summer).
At such moments, the opposite is true for the enemy: despite the enormous losses, the morale of most soldiers remains high.
Because they are advancing, and every day they capture settlements or several landings.
Courage, so to speak.
8. And most importantly, there is no categorical moral condemnation of evaders, refuseniks and deserters in our society.

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