Ukraine is currently in an extremely difficult geopolitical situation, as on February 24, 2022, it suffered a brutal and large-scale armed attack by Russia, whose total military, demographic, and economic potential significantly exceeds Ukraine’s. And for the second year in a row, our state has been forced to counter Russian aggression, trying to restore sovereignty throughout the entire state territory. The war also led to enormous socio-economic losses for Ukrainian society and further deepened the terrible demographic crisis. Dependence on other states is also noticeable, as Ukraine needs constant military and economic assistance from its Western partners to counter Russian aggression.
Therefore, under such unfavorable conditions, the very question of Ukraine’s growing geopolitical role may seem inappropriate. In addition, the situation is complicated by the lack of political cohesion in Ukrainian society and the unformed and unbalanced political system, primarily due to the dominant economic and informational influence of Ukrainian and foreign oligarchs.
But here we must remember that if a state does not set higher geopolitical goals, it is doomed to a kind of political languishing. In addition, in the past, even in the absence of state status, but with the idea of statehood, Ukraine still acted as a subject of influence on the development of international relations, primarily in Central and Eastern Europe, including during the two world wars. And this was largely determined by Ukraine’s very geographical location, its dramatic history, its large size, and its persistent desire to create its own state.
And what is important is that Ukraine’s geopolitical role in many cases was crucial. Without going into ancient history, it should be noted that in modern times it was Ukraine that completed the collapse of the USSR empire and actually gave independence to Belarus and the former Central Asian republics. Similarly, in previous periods of history, the mission of the Ukrainian people to defend European civilization and the Christian world has been manifested many times. And when such functions could not be performed, the European world suffered great losses. For example, Ukrainian political geographer S. Rudnytsky warned the Entente powers that the annexation of Ukraine by the Russian Bolshevik Empire would multiply its expansionist ambitions and become a prerequisite for Russia’s annexation of Central Europe. And unfortunately, this happened.
Even more strategically important is Ukraine’s geopolitical role in the current conditions of armed opposition to the Moscow regime, which has thus openly moved to implement its imperial plans and change the territorial and political structure of the world as a whole. It is important to realize that the armed attack on Ukraine was also determined by its geopolitical significance, because First, there can be no Russian empire without Ukraine, and second, the very existence of a sovereign Ukraine, a separate Ukrainian people and a separate Ukrainian historical process violates the historical Russian imperial mythology and ideology, and third, Ukraine’s independence has been and is a factor in the aspirations for full political independence and democratic development of other former Soviet republics and the peoples of the Russian Federation itself.
But Putin’s regime obviously did not intend to stop at plans to eliminate Ukrainian statehood, considering various options for controlling the entire Central and Eastern, North and South-Eastern Europe, especially those countries, formerly part of the Russian Empire, as well as all post-communist states. At the same time, the Kremlin regime was rightly hoping for the spread of panic among NATO and the EU. As a result of such obvious geopolitical plans, reinforced by oil and gas pressure, Central and largely Western Europe was to come under the Kremlin’s decisive geopolitical influence. And the Kremlin regime’s success on the European subcontinent would be a prerequisite for Russia’s expansion in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, but to the extent that China and Turkey would allow it.
Ukraine’s decisive counteraction to Russian aggression not only broke the plans of the Moscow regime and limited Russian expansion in various directions, but also changed the distribution of political forces in the world, geopolitical orientations of different countries, and mental approaches to understanding a number of problems. Similarly, the Russian armed invasion clearly revealed the imperfection of the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations, which was formed as a result of World War II. In particular, Russia’s brazen armed attack on Ukraine has exposed the complete incapacity of the of the leading body that should regulate issues of war and peace, the UN Security Council.
Thus, by firmly countering Russian aggression, Ukraine is in a way acting as a security guarantor for a number of Central and Eastern European countries, especially the Baltic states and Moldova. Moreover, the Ukrainian resistance even opens up certain prerequisites for restoring Moldova’s integrity through the integration of Transnistria into Moldova. Similarly, despite all the negative trends in the territorial and political development of Belarus, it is Ukraine’s firmness in defending its sovereignty that allows this country to retain some signs of statehood, avoiding its complete absorption by the Moscow regime. Having withstood Russian aggression, Ukraine ensured the end of the “Finlandization” policy and allowed Finland to finally free itself from Russian geopolitical influence and become a NATO member. Ukraine also has the potential to implement various international communication and economic projects in the Baltic-Black Sea region. Thus, having become an insurmountable obstacle to Russian imperial expansion, Ukraine is already significantly contributing to the geopolitical strengthening of the entire Central and Eastern Europe, creating the preconditions for its territorial and political consolidation in the future.
However, the situation in the world and on the European subcontinent requires other qualitative changes, some of which can be initiated by Ukraine. Obviously, this may become possible as a result of the victorious end of the war, patriotic and economic recovery. First of all, the fact that the current establishment of extreme manifestations of neoliberalism in the West has caused a significant cultural and moral crisis, primarily in the field of family relations, undermining even the demographic and economic potential of many democratic states. Given the preservation of traditional values in Ukraine, it is our country and some other countries of Central and Eastern Europe that have every reason to give impetus to the renewal of European civilization on a nationally conservative basis, to restore its true values, which were formed on the basis of Christianity and national cultures. Ukraine, which combines different Christian traditions and movements, can also initiate new breakthroughs in Christian ecumenism in the process of rapprochement between Orthodox and Catholic denominations. This will be possible if the leading circles of the major Christian denominations (Catholic and Orthodox) realize the danger of a spiritual crisis that has engulfed Europe to varying degrees. One of the reserves for the growth of Ukraine’s international political significance in the context of a new spiritual and cultural “reset” of European civilization may be the successful modernization of traditional Ukrainian folk culture. And in general кhe cultural experience of Ukraine has grounds to give a new impetus to the mutual enrichment of Western, Central and Eastern European cultures, deepening the pan-European cultural identity that can retain its characteristic features even in the face of intensifying migration processes. Ukraine also has some favorable prerequisites for the formation of positive options for cooperation between Christian and Muslim communities.
Thus, the growth of Ukraine’s geopolitical role is real, but it requires strong state and political will, strengthening of patriotism and national and state self-respect in general, as well as deepening of interregional and ethnopolitical consolidation of Ukrainian society.
