From the very beginning, the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war depended on the political reaction and concrete actions of the outside world. And the situation in this regard has been quite dynamic, both favoring Ukrainian interests and complicating Ukraine’s counteraction to the aggressor state. We can distinguish several stages, each of which had international political factors that worked both in favor of Ukraine and, conversely, more favorable to Russia. The efficiency and timeliness of providing comprehensive international assistance to our country was also important.
First of all, the large-scale attack of the Russian imperialists on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, caused a great wave of indignation at the level of the general public of the free world. And after some confusion, the leaders of Western countries unequivocally condemned Russian aggression. And so an international coalition in support of Ukraine began to form. Much credit in this case goes to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who immediately showed confidence that Ukraine would be able to repel Russian aggression and held an important organizational work at the level of the leadership of Western countries.
But in general, the international political reaction of the democratic world was very cautious due to exaggerated fears of a new world war. That is why no tough international legal steps were taken, which resulted in Russia remaining both a member of the UN and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. And the League of Nations, by the way, still managed to expel the Soviet Union in December 1939 for its attack on Finland.
The United States, the United Kingdom, NATO, and the EU began to actively provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine, while simultaneously imposing economic sanctions against Russia and freezing the assets of a Russian bank and some Russian oligarchs. However, it is clear that Ukraine’s arms needs were far from being met, especially in terms of air defense. Similarly, the sanctions imposed have only partially limited Russia’s capabilities. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ powerful counteraction to Russian aggression has caused great sympathy for Ukraine around the world and some confusion in Russia. The culmination of this stage of hostilities was the liberation of Kharkiv region, the Right Bank of Kherson region, and some towns and villages in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the fall of 2023.
But in 2003, several events took place in the world that changed the situation both at the front and at the level of international relations. This is primarily due to the sharp rise in prices for oil and other Russian exports (although sanctions were not directly imposed on them), which was one of the main factors behind the significant strengthening of the Russian economy and the increase in foreign exchange earnings to the Russian budget. The US withdrawal from the nuclear deal under the administration of President Donald Trump was a favorable precondition for Russia’s inflating oil prices. Trump in 2020, which was never restored by President D. Biden, which blocked Iranian oil from entering world markets. The “cooling” of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia also played a role here. Was there any other way to stop the rise in oil prices and the increase in revenues of this aggressive state, which were used to accelerate the production of weapons? Yes, if there were a coherent strategy for countering moscow and a single center for its implementation. But this was not the case, nor was there any desire to achieve the collapse of Russia through the collapse of its economy.
Another important geopolitical factor that attracted the world’s attention was Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, which marked the beginning of a new war. Since this war has once again actualized the issue of international terrorism, touched upon the status of Palestine, and the relationship between Israel and neighboring Islamic states, it has caused great disturbance throughout the world, primarily in the Islamic world, as well as in countries with large Muslim populations. And to a large extent, the new Middle East conflict has pushed the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war to the back burner in the public eye.
By the beginning of the third year of the war, the international political situation in support of Ukraine had become even more complicated. What are the negative aspects? First, the U.S. presidential campaign has entered an active phase, and the issue of aid to Ukraine has become the subject of various party political struggles, which has delayed the allocation of economic aid to Ukraine at the level of the U.S. Congress until early April 2024. And such assistance from the United States was the basis of the Ukrainian war economy. Second, our partners’ lagging behind in ammunition production compared to Russia’s pace and volume has become noticeable, causing shell starvation in Ukrainian units in various parts of the frontline. Thirdly, Moscow has intensified its information war against Ukraine at all levels, mobilized anti-Ukrainian political environments around the world, including in neighboring countries, which manifested itself in the threat of forming governments with anti-Ukrainian attitudes (as in Slovakia), blocking the export of Ukrainian agricultural products on the border with Poland. In addition, Moscow has enlisted the support of the totalitarian DPRK in providing ammunition, strengthened its position in the Persian Gulf, and expanded its political and economic influence in Africa and, to a lesser extent, Latin America. At the same time, Russia is conducting hybrid information propaganda to the outside world, claiming in one case that they are opponents of neocolonialism, defenders of the Islamic world, and in others that they are fighters against Islamic fundamentalism and international migration. The Russian hydra ideology for “external consumption” was and is even more brutal, cynically combining leftist (for Latin American states) and pseudo-conservative principles (for European countries). And the key point of this information war has always been any attempts to create a negative international image of Ukraine.
Since China’s geopolitical importance is growing in the modern world, much depends on its position in the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the People’s Republic of China has not condemned Russian aggression, although it declares its recognition of Ukraine’s territorial and political integrity. Despite China’s special geopolitical ambitions, its unconstructive attitude toward Russian aggression has been reflected in the growing political tension with the United States, which has been and continues to be Ukraine’s main political partner. That is, today China to a certain extent views Ukraine’s situation through the prism of its relations with the United States, and these relations, despite some efforts by G. Kissinger, did not improve.
Despite a number of negative factors, at the beginning of the third year of the Russian-Ukrainian war, there are some positive aspects of international political support for Ukraine. It is about the activation of European states that have directly felt the danger of a possible expansion of Russian aggression. French President E. Macron even suggested that France could send its troops to Ukraine under certain conditions, and he was supported by the leaders of some other countries. This caused real anger and even some panic in Russia. In addition, Ukraine’s European partners have begun to make more efforts to provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine. But we must realize that it will be difficult for European countries to compensate for the lack of economic support from the United States.
However, the international political context of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not limited to support for Ukraine. Its role in shaping the architecture of modern international relations is also important. But obviously, everything will depend on the results of the war. However, it is already clear that puring Ukraine’s sustained counteraction to Russian aggression has not only disrupted the Moscow regime’s plans and limited Russian expansion in various directions, but has also changed the distribution of political forces in the world, geopolitical orientations of different countries, and mental approaches to understanding a number of problems. Similarly, the Russian armed invasion clearly revealed the imperfection of the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations, which was formed as a result of World War II. In particular, Russia’s brazen armed attack on Ukraine has exposed the complete incapacity of the leading body that is supposed to regulate issues of war and peace – the UN Security Council .
Thus, by firmly countering Russian aggression, Ukraine is in a way acting as a security guarantor for a number of Central and Eastern European countries, especially the Baltic states and Moldova. Moreover, the Ukrainian resistance even opens up certain prerequisites for restoring Moldova’s integrity through the integration of Transnistria into Moldova. Similarly, despite all the negative trends in the territorial and political development of Belarus, it is Ukraine’s firmness in defending its sovereignty that allows this country to retain some signs of statehood, avoiding its complete absorption by the Moscow regime. Having withstood Russian aggression, Ukraine ensured the end of the “Finlandization” policy and allowed Finland to finally free itself from Russian geopolitical influence and become a NATO member. Ukraine also has the potential to implement various international communication and economic projects in the Baltic-Black Sea region. Thus, having become an insurmountable obstacle to Russian imperial expansion, Ukraine is already significantly contributing to the geopolitical strengthening of the entire Central and Eastern Europe, creating the preconditions for its territorial and political consolidation in the future.
However, the situation in the world and on the European subcontinent requires other qualitative changes, some of which can be initiated by Ukraine. Obviously, this may become possible as a result of the victorious end of the war, patriotic and economic recovery. First of all, the fact that the current establishment of extreme manifestations of neoliberalism in the West has caused a significant cultural and moral crisis, primarily in the field of family relations, undermining even the demographic and economic potential of many democratic states. Given the preservation of traditional values in Ukraine, it is our country and some other countries of Central and Eastern Europe that have every reason to give impetus to the renewal of European civilization on a nationally conservative basis, to restore its true values, which were formed on the basis of Christianity and national cultures.